Cuts, Wounds that Oil does not salve

Fed rate cut gooses stocks, but does not affect the fundamental flaw in the economy: overspending at ridiculous rates of credit. Oil interests continue doing their share to disservice prosperity by jacking oil up toward $100 per barrel. The oil and banking interests seem bent on "killing the golden-egg-laying goose".

A Wyss Man

from CNNMoney: we only disagree on the % chance...
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David Wyss, chief economist with Standard & Poor's, puts the chance of a recession at less than 50 percent. But he agrees...that the risks are greater with the combination of increased oil prices and the current weakness in other parts of the economy.

Wyss still thinks that the current record highs are just short of the breaking point needed to tip the economy into recession. "My feeling is $90 doesn't get us there," he said. "My guess is we have to go over $100 to get to a recession. How much over $100, I'm not sure."

Wyss said that the economy is less susceptible to oil shocks than in 1980 and 1981, when oil hit what was widely seen as record highs (adjusted for inflation, between $93 and $101 a barrel).

Credit Crunch part II

Hmmm...where have I heard this before...? Oh, yes! From my own lips...
(as opposed to other "expert" opinions" spoken from the other orifice)
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CNN MONEY/FORTUNE: The $915B Bomb
Americans have record credit-card debt and banks are starting to sweat an uptick in default rates, reports Fortune's Peter Gumbel. Why some fear this could be the next subprime.

Recession Probablility: 70%

Are We Already There?? (well, not technically)

CNN:
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Nearly half of Americans feel the U.S. economy is in a recession, marked by a significant decline in economic activity, according to a survey released Thursday. The poll by the CNN-Opinion Research Corporation found that while 46 percent of Americans hold that belief, 51 percent don't.
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Recession Probability 66%

CNNMoney: "Housing depression raises recession risk"

Hmm, used the words "depression" and "recession" in a headline.

Housing starts this year 31% fewer than last year : weakest level in 14 years.

Consumers Finally Stop "Splurging"

...or spending enough on non-essentials to make the basket-case economy look healthy.
The consumer finally lost access to enough cash to buy a lot of stuff, besides paying for food and shelter. So opines Geoff Colvin of Fortune magazine. Admitting he's antsy about prediction, he doesn't see a recession...necessarily.

Deef's Recession Probability: 60%.

Not Over Yet (Part II)

David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's says:
"The panic has subsided but the housing market has not hit bottom yet. It will not hit bottom until winter. Housing prices won't hit bottom until next summer and the losses won't peak for another two years, until 2009... We are not halfway through this crisis yet."

SO who's "goosing" the Dow back over 14000 ??? Are there really optimists out there, or just
opportunists?