DOW drops 560 points in 2 days..."on Fed fears"

You mean, investors are worried that the Federal Reserve will stop shoveling cash into the Slop Market?? Could it be people have realized that this is all that's holding up the economy, fattening the rich faster than ever?

"Good" News: 3Q 2011 GDP +2.5%...

BAD NEWS: CNNMoney economists predict 4Q will slow to 2.2%; then 2.3% thru 2012. If this were true it would be abysmal; in fact, I expect the economy to contract again in 2012, and enter the long-pooh-pooh'd double-dip recession. We'll see who's right...(BTW U.S. unemployment still "officially" 9.1%)

These Guys Should Know, Right? (Would they lie to you?)

General Electric, ExxonMobil and FedEx CEOs all say our economy may slow down but will likely avoid an outright double-dip recession.

Meanwhile, sole-proprietor Deef Fourjay GUARANTEES a "new" recession!

Who you gonna believe?

Bernanke is CLUELESS

Said he is 'surprised' consumers are being so cautious. Hmm... why would we be so cautious with such encouraging signs in the economy ; like no new jobs, price jumps in gas and food, and a spastic financial and equity market?? He's freakin' CLUELESS because he lives in a DIFFERENT WORLD where you never go broke, lose your house or can't pay your bills!!

IT'S OFFICIAL: Recession since Dec'07

CNNMoney reports:
The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that the U.S. has been in a recession since December 2007, making official what most Americans have already believed about the state of the economy .

'NUFF SAID! I was right, Bush was wrong...and bad...and thankfully gone. Now if we could just ditch the Fed!

Recession:another believer

80,000 jobs lost in March. January and February revised to 76,000 losses...each.

CNNMoney.com reports:
==============================================
The Labor Department now estimates that the economy has shed 232,000 jobs in the first three months of this year.
"The revisions are the real surprise in the report," said John Silvia, chief economist for Wachovia. "If we had known it was anything like that, there would not have been any debate going on about whether we were in a recession. It's pretty stark."
===============================================
I wasn't debating, except for the technical definitions.

Other Opinions (gloomy)

Along with Warren Buffett, this latecomer to the R-word party as reported on CNNMoney.com:
___________________________________________________________________
The U.S. economy is two months into a recession, according to a research note released Friday by JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPMorgan anticipates the current recession remaining short, unless there is an "abrupt change in corporate behavior."
In a short recession, the bottom occurs at about five months, Thomas Lee an analyst with JPMorgan wrote in a research note. Lee said during typical "short" recessions, equity markets gain about 12% in the year following the bottom.
___________________________________
Alternate view comes from Motley Fool website,
which posted an article entitled "It's Worse Than
You Think It Is." They see bottom still ahead!

Stopping the Freight Train with a Brick

Bush gabs about an economic stimulus package...soonest it could be implemented is JUNE.
Too little, too late; and some say counterproductive (like the Federal Reserve rate cuts to
be made on Jan 30th).
====================
Fortune magazine poll of 1000 wage earners says over 3/4 see the handwriting on the wall:

Which of the following best describes the country's economic condition right now?

In an economic recession right now.......................19%
Heading into a recession in the next 12 months...57%
Not in a recession and not heading into one.........19%
No Answer/ Don't Know........................................... 5%

Deef's opinion: Recession Probability CERTAIN - UNDENIABLE - REAL - NOW

Feldstein Weighs In

from CNNMoney site & Google news:
Martin Feldstein, the Harvard economist credited with being one of the fathers of the Bush administration tax cuts, says the U.S. economy is now likely to slip into a recession, and that avoiding one will take a new round of tax cuts and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
=========================
Deef Recession Probability: 1000%

Does Anybody Still Doubt It ???

From CNNMOney: "They'll still be spending money, but it will be on credit card interest and minimum payments, not on apparel or eating out," said John Silvia, chief economist for Wachovia. He puts the chance of a recession next year at 30 percent - up from 21 percent in his previous estimate.

Deef's Recession Probability = 75%

fo*R*tune weighs in...

Pandering to the fearful...or placing their bets??
http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/23/magazines/fortune/barr_recession.fortune/index.htm

MSNBC weighs in on the R-word

Some facets of the economy are critical in deciding whether it slips into recession; an excellent (if flipflopping) analysis at MSNBC:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21756953/

Cuts, Wounds that Oil does not salve

Fed rate cut gooses stocks, but does not affect the fundamental flaw in the economy: overspending at ridiculous rates of credit. Oil interests continue doing their share to disservice prosperity by jacking oil up toward $100 per barrel. The oil and banking interests seem bent on "killing the golden-egg-laying goose".

Are We Already There?? (well, not technically)

CNN:
================================================================
Nearly half of Americans feel the U.S. economy is in a recession, marked by a significant decline in economic activity, according to a survey released Thursday. The poll by the CNN-Opinion Research Corporation found that while 46 percent of Americans hold that belief, 51 percent don't.
==================================================================

Recession Probability 66%

Consumers Finally Stop "Splurging"

...or spending enough on non-essentials to make the basket-case economy look healthy.
The consumer finally lost access to enough cash to buy a lot of stuff, besides paying for food and shelter. So opines Geoff Colvin of Fortune magazine. Admitting he's antsy about prediction, he doesn't see a recession...necessarily.

Deef's Recession Probability: 60%.

Not Over Yet (Part II)

David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's says:
"The panic has subsided but the housing market has not hit bottom yet. It will not hit bottom until winter. Housing prices won't hit bottom until next summer and the losses won't peak for another two years, until 2009... We are not halfway through this crisis yet."

SO who's "goosing" the Dow back over 14000 ??? Are there really optimists out there, or just
opportunists?

Confident, Dry and Secure! ("Thriving" Economy)

Conference Board consumer sentiment index DROPS to 99.8 (from 105.6 August).
Home sales lowest rate in 5 years.
Home PRICES steepest drop in 16 years.

You didn't think it was over, did you??

"Nothing is over...! Nothing!!"
John Rambo, "First Blood"

Oil Up = Economy Down

With the price of oil flying past $82, how can anyone cheer a PPI/CPI drop that included an energy (gasoline & natural gas, mostly) price drop??? Doesn't that bode ill for NEXT month's figures??? I swear, all the business reporting systems go out of their way to be optimistic, trying to draw more capital into the equity and commodity markets!
And what does it say about the economy that people welcome governmental influence (interference) in the marketplace?? What does it say about the capitalistic system we have engendered??
[rant off]
My forecast RECESSION PROBABILITY = 52%.

Credit Crunch not exactly what I expected

I have been predicting an economic downturn since 2005, based on the lackluster "recovery" from the dot-com debacle. Jobs have never "been there" despite low unemployment, and banks [backed by the infamous Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes] have been squeezing ever more blood out of the middle class. (Who can really afford 25-30% interest rates on credit??)

Real-estate appreciation led many people to re-finance their homes as a way of getting spending cash. BUT the loans being "pushed" were ADJUSTABLE rate mortgages (ARMs), with low initial "teaser" rates but blockbuster "reset" rates nearing (or exceeding!) double digits. Teasers made it easy for buyers to qualify for loans they really couldn't afford. No one was complaining because home sales and refinancing were keeping the economy "thriving" [GW Bush, Aug 2007] So now with real estate prices at "plateau" levels (everyone who can afford one has one, no one who doesn't have one can) , the mortgage/re-fi boom is over. No more easy cash to spend on consumables, AND no way to pay the mortgage.

OK, I thought the impact would be in loss of consumer purchasing power (drop the GDP).
What REALLY happened is that the failure of these "subprime" mortgages tanked financial instruments that included them! If the loan won't be repaid, it's value is zero. How do you know how many will fail?? Hence, all the hedge funds et al can't be reliably valued and nobody wants to be stuck with them!

Different cause, same result: economic depression, possibly leading to a recession. Triggered,
ironically, by the Fed jacking up interest rates to try to cool down the economy and control
inflation. If there's a lesson here it's that you shouldn't mess with things you can't control or even fully understand! [rant off]