Feldstein Weighs In

from CNNMoney site & Google news:
Martin Feldstein, the Harvard economist credited with being one of the fathers of the Bush administration tax cuts, says the U.S. economy is now likely to slip into a recession, and that avoiding one will take a new round of tax cuts and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
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Deef Recession Probability: 1000%

Watch *This*!

Jump to 5% unemployment!

As Reported at MSNBC.com:

"The rise in the unemployment rate is very disturbing," John Ryding, chief U.S. economist for Bear Stearns, told clients in a note Friday morning. "January's data will be very important in informing on the state of the business cycle," he added.
Saying he was now on "recession watch," Ryding noted that the unemployment rate has now risen 6-tenths percent in the last year, a jump that hasn't happened since 1949 without a recession following.
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Well, that says a lot. Mostly, what I've been saying!

Deef Recession Probability: 200%

What Do You Think

Today (12/27/2007) CNNMoney poll finds that 26% of online poll respondents say we are already in a recession, and 35% say we will be in 2008. Can all these people be wrong?

Deef Recession Probability: 101%

Stocks Back Up (over 13000)...recession risk,too.

The Associated Press (in "Durable Goods 3rd Monthly Decline" article):

Many economists have raised the odds that the country could fall into an outright recession to as high as 40 percent although they believe that the Federal Reserve, which has already cut interest rates twice since September, will keep reducing rates if economic activity continues to falter.
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Deef sez **80%**; stock rally based on hopes of another (prop-me-up) Fed rate cut Dec 11th.
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Can you say volatile:
DJIA Mon 11/26 -237.5
Tue 11/27 +215
Wed 11/28 +254 midday

Does Anybody Still Doubt It ???

From CNNMOney: "They'll still be spending money, but it will be on credit card interest and minimum payments, not on apparel or eating out," said John Silvia, chief economist for Wachovia. He puts the chance of a recession next year at 30 percent - up from 21 percent in his previous estimate.

Deef's Recession Probability = 75%

Credit Crunch part II

Hmmm...where have I heard this before...? Oh, yes! From my own lips...
(as opposed to other "expert" opinions" spoken from the other orifice)
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CNN MONEY/FORTUNE: The $915B Bomb
Americans have record credit-card debt and banks are starting to sweat an uptick in default rates, reports Fortune's Peter Gumbel. Why some fear this could be the next subprime.

Recession Probablility: 70%

Are We Already There?? (well, not technically)

CNN:
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Nearly half of Americans feel the U.S. economy is in a recession, marked by a significant decline in economic activity, according to a survey released Thursday. The poll by the CNN-Opinion Research Corporation found that while 46 percent of Americans hold that belief, 51 percent don't.
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Recession Probability 66%

Goosing the Economy (Recession Odds Up)

CNNMoney analysts point out that this current stock rally is mostly euphoria from the rate cut, and (as they put it) "watch out for the hangover". The analysts also note that this euphoria may well extend into consumer behavior for the holidays; which is a better reason for doing it than helping out the homeowners. The "backlash" from this activity may hurt the economy, in the long run.

Deef sez Recession Chances: 55% !