A Wyss Man

from CNNMoney: we only disagree on the % chance...
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David Wyss, chief economist with Standard & Poor's, puts the chance of a recession at less than 50 percent. But he agrees...that the risks are greater with the combination of increased oil prices and the current weakness in other parts of the economy.

Wyss still thinks that the current record highs are just short of the breaking point needed to tip the economy into recession. "My feeling is $90 doesn't get us there," he said. "My guess is we have to go over $100 to get to a recession. How much over $100, I'm not sure."

Wyss said that the economy is less susceptible to oil shocks than in 1980 and 1981, when oil hit what was widely seen as record highs (adjusted for inflation, between $93 and $101 a barrel).