Consumer Spending Fell "UNEXPECTEDLY" in June

msnbc (c) 8-2-11:
U.S. consumer spending slipped 0.2 percent in June, after edging up 0.1 percent in May. It was the first decline since September 2009. Economists polled by Reuters had expected spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, to rise 0.2 percent...
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...because they are idiots who can't tell which way the wind is blowing without a compass!

Are we there yet? (yes)

From CNNMoney:
The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its final index of confidence fell to 69.5 in March — its lowest since February 1992, when it was at 68.8 — from the previous month's reading of 70.8; indicating that "it is now nearly unanimous among consumers that the economy has already entered a recession."

Consumers Finally Stop "Splurging"

...or spending enough on non-essentials to make the basket-case economy look healthy.
The consumer finally lost access to enough cash to buy a lot of stuff, besides paying for food and shelter. So opines Geoff Colvin of Fortune magazine. Admitting he's antsy about prediction, he doesn't see a recession...necessarily.

Deef's Recession Probability: 60%.

Confident, Dry and Secure! ("Thriving" Economy)

Conference Board consumer sentiment index DROPS to 99.8 (from 105.6 August).
Home sales lowest rate in 5 years.
Home PRICES steepest drop in 16 years.

You didn't think it was over, did you??

"Nothing is over...! Nothing!!"
John Rambo, "First Blood"

Goosing the Economy (Recession Odds Up)

CNNMoney analysts point out that this current stock rally is mostly euphoria from the rate cut, and (as they put it) "watch out for the hangover". The analysts also note that this euphoria may well extend into consumer behavior for the holidays; which is a better reason for doing it than helping out the homeowners. The "backlash" from this activity may hurt the economy, in the long run.

Deef sez Recession Chances: 55% !