Confident, Dry and Secure! ("Thriving" Economy)

Conference Board consumer sentiment index DROPS to 99.8 (from 105.6 August).
Home sales lowest rate in 5 years.
Home PRICES steepest drop in 16 years.

You didn't think it was over, did you??

"Nothing is over...! Nothing!!"
John Rambo, "First Blood"

IRAQ WAR musings

I decided that the Iraq War commentary belongs in a separate blog: kindly switch to channel 42, "Iraq Black", which includes facts and opinions on the War and the Oil Fix:
http://iraqblack.blogspot.com

Goosing the Economy (Recession Odds Up)

CNNMoney analysts point out that this current stock rally is mostly euphoria from the rate cut, and (as they put it) "watch out for the hangover". The analysts also note that this euphoria may well extend into consumer behavior for the holidays; which is a better reason for doing it than helping out the homeowners. The "backlash" from this activity may hurt the economy, in the long run.

Deef sez Recession Chances: 55% !

Correction: OIL $83+ a barrel !

Year-to-date, crude oil is up an outrageous $22.27 a barrel ! (Up 36.5%!)

Oil Up = Economy Down

With the price of oil flying past $82, how can anyone cheer a PPI/CPI drop that included an energy (gasoline & natural gas, mostly) price drop??? Doesn't that bode ill for NEXT month's figures??? I swear, all the business reporting systems go out of their way to be optimistic, trying to draw more capital into the equity and commodity markets!
And what does it say about the economy that people welcome governmental influence (interference) in the marketplace?? What does it say about the capitalistic system we have engendered??
[rant off]
My forecast RECESSION PROBABILITY = 52%.

My Photo

Blogger doesn't seem to be able to keep my photo up!

The Fed "Rescues" the Economy (humbug)

Well, the Fed has goosed the market again, by cutting interest rate by a half percentage point; no one is saying what is OBVIOUS: they are only UNDOING (trying to undo) the damage they did in RAISING rates in 2006!