Confident, Dry and Secure! ("Thriving" Economy)

Conference Board consumer sentiment index DROPS to 99.8 (from 105.6 August).
Home sales lowest rate in 5 years.
Home PRICES steepest drop in 16 years.

You didn't think it was over, did you??

"Nothing is over...! Nothing!!"
John Rambo, "First Blood"

IRAQ WAR musings

I decided that the Iraq War commentary belongs in a separate blog: kindly switch to channel 42, "Iraq Black", which includes facts and opinions on the War and the Oil Fix:
http://iraqblack.blogspot.com

Goosing the Economy (Recession Odds Up)

CNNMoney analysts point out that this current stock rally is mostly euphoria from the rate cut, and (as they put it) "watch out for the hangover". The analysts also note that this euphoria may well extend into consumer behavior for the holidays; which is a better reason for doing it than helping out the homeowners. The "backlash" from this activity may hurt the economy, in the long run.

Deef sez Recession Chances: 55% !

Correction: OIL $83+ a barrel !

Year-to-date, crude oil is up an outrageous $22.27 a barrel ! (Up 36.5%!)

Oil Up = Economy Down

With the price of oil flying past $82, how can anyone cheer a PPI/CPI drop that included an energy (gasoline & natural gas, mostly) price drop??? Doesn't that bode ill for NEXT month's figures??? I swear, all the business reporting systems go out of their way to be optimistic, trying to draw more capital into the equity and commodity markets!
And what does it say about the economy that people welcome governmental influence (interference) in the marketplace?? What does it say about the capitalistic system we have engendered??
[rant off]
My forecast RECESSION PROBABILITY = 52%.

My Photo

Blogger doesn't seem to be able to keep my photo up!

The Fed "Rescues" the Economy (humbug)

Well, the Fed has goosed the market again, by cutting interest rate by a half percentage point; no one is saying what is OBVIOUS: they are only UNDOING (trying to undo) the damage they did in RAISING rates in 2006!

Recession On Its Way???

Recession likelihood increases with Administration's continued denials that there is anything seriously wrong with the economy - guess they'd rather be seen as ignorant than foolish in failure. Expected Federal Reserve Board rate cut on Tuesday Sept. 18 will only be a band-aid now... What is needed now is the same thing we needed eight years ago: a sound fiscal policy that pays for what we use NOW and not later, and not hiding it beneath popular "tax cuts". While I am not a big fan of Federal programs in general or of her global health insurance plan specifically, it looks like Hillary's the one to get it done. Watch for my Iraq War posts to follow.

Consuming Less (Finally), Dooming G.O.P.?

U.S. Commerce Department reports retail sales for August 2007 rose just 0.3 percent, short of economists' forecasts for 0.5 percent rise. If you leave out auto sales, total retail sales DROPPED 0.4 percent versus a forecast 0.2 percent increase. It may be that consumers' collective purses have finally emptied enough so that discretionary purchases are postponed or avoided altogether. I have been predicting this since the Fed first raised interest rates and set the stage for debtor defaults. I blame the Feds, the Republicans, and the greedy banking elite. Oh, yes, and the oil companies that rob us every time we fill up. The big loser (besides the hard-working American family) has got to be the Republican Party. As if they needed another albatross like Iraq. If voters "vote with their pocketbooks" in 2008, the G.O.P. is doomed.

Out of Oil?

CNNMoney article today reporting narrowly-held view that world oil supply and "production" (processing and delivery) cannot keep pace with demand. That by 2030 there could be a worldwide oil shortage. What may keep this from happening is the incredible premium paid for oil and the refined products, which provides real incentive to find and refine it.

Oil

Oil was above $80 a barrel today for the first time (not highest vs adjusted prices, but top dollar amount ever). Oil interests trying to squeeze that last drop of blood from consumers before Bush leaves office (495 more days!).

Not Going Away

Reality of effect of "credit crunch" on housing in the United States was underscored by today's home-sales contracts estimate: lowest since 9/11...that would be 2001. If anybody still had on the rose-colored glasses that were worn yesterday on Wall Street, this broke 'em. Over the past weekend, one pundit opined that it could take a DECADE for housing woes to unwind and reverse. OK, I'm partial to the three-to-five-year guesses. [PS Iraq War update coming soon!]