I'm Back...and boy was I right...

Events of past six months bear out my recession prediction. Fed and the Bush Treasury screwed up big-time, and all Americans will pay the price for years to come; most affected will be the foreclosed and bankrupted, but individual taxpayers and 401K/IRA retirees also got whacked.

Thank Heaven the electorate realized it needed Obama more than four more years of GOP mismanagement!

Oof, maybe not so short!

CNNMoney:
"We have a deadly combination of commodity price inflation and credit contraction," said University of Maryland economics professor Peter Morici. "It's tough to imagine a worse combination. In a worst case scenario, the recession could last several years."

Recession:another believer

80,000 jobs lost in March. January and February revised to 76,000 losses...each.

CNNMoney.com reports:
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The Labor Department now estimates that the economy has shed 232,000 jobs in the first three months of this year.
"The revisions are the real surprise in the report," said John Silvia, chief economist for Wachovia. "If we had known it was anything like that, there would not have been any debate going on about whether we were in a recession. It's pretty stark."
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I wasn't debating, except for the technical definitions.

Are we there yet? (yes)

From CNNMoney:
The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its final index of confidence fell to 69.5 in March — its lowest since February 1992, when it was at 68.8 — from the previous month's reading of 70.8; indicating that "it is now nearly unanimous among consumers that the economy has already entered a recession."

Other Opinions (gloomy)

Along with Warren Buffett, this latecomer to the R-word party as reported on CNNMoney.com:
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The U.S. economy is two months into a recession, according to a research note released Friday by JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPMorgan anticipates the current recession remaining short, unless there is an "abrupt change in corporate behavior."
In a short recession, the bottom occurs at about five months, Thomas Lee an analyst with JPMorgan wrote in a research note. Lee said during typical "short" recessions, equity markets gain about 12% in the year following the bottom.
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Alternate view comes from Motley Fool website,
which posted an article entitled "It's Worse Than
You Think It Is." They see bottom still ahead!

OK, Maybe I'm Right (of course)

CNNMoney.com columnist writes: (2-5-08)
A growing number of top economists believe that the U.S. economy has now toppled into recession.
Alarm bells were set off Tuesday by a grim report on service businesses, which make up the majority of the U.S. economy.
The Institute of Supply Management said that activity in the service sector declined for the first time in nearly five years. This report also indicated that employers are cutting staff.
...
Some economists argued that the normally low-profile ISM services reading, coupled with the government's report Friday showing the first monthly net loss in jobs in more than four years, is proof that recession is now a reality.
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As I said.

I stand corrected!

We are TECHNICALLY not in a Recession: 4Q 2007 economic growth estimated at +.6%!
But as former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was quoted on Wednesday as saying,
“I believe the probability of a recession is at least 50 percent." Fed rate cuts notwithstanding!

Deef Probability: dead certain.