Are we there yet? (yes)

From CNNMoney:
The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its final index of confidence fell to 69.5 in March — its lowest since February 1992, when it was at 68.8 — from the previous month's reading of 70.8; indicating that "it is now nearly unanimous among consumers that the economy has already entered a recession."

Other Opinions (gloomy)

Along with Warren Buffett, this latecomer to the R-word party as reported on CNNMoney.com:
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The U.S. economy is two months into a recession, according to a research note released Friday by JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPMorgan anticipates the current recession remaining short, unless there is an "abrupt change in corporate behavior."
In a short recession, the bottom occurs at about five months, Thomas Lee an analyst with JPMorgan wrote in a research note. Lee said during typical "short" recessions, equity markets gain about 12% in the year following the bottom.
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Alternate view comes from Motley Fool website,
which posted an article entitled "It's Worse Than
You Think It Is." They see bottom still ahead!

OK, Maybe I'm Right (of course)

CNNMoney.com columnist writes: (2-5-08)
A growing number of top economists believe that the U.S. economy has now toppled into recession.
Alarm bells were set off Tuesday by a grim report on service businesses, which make up the majority of the U.S. economy.
The Institute of Supply Management said that activity in the service sector declined for the first time in nearly five years. This report also indicated that employers are cutting staff.
...
Some economists argued that the normally low-profile ISM services reading, coupled with the government's report Friday showing the first monthly net loss in jobs in more than four years, is proof that recession is now a reality.
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As I said.

I stand corrected!

We are TECHNICALLY not in a Recession: 4Q 2007 economic growth estimated at +.6%!
But as former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was quoted on Wednesday as saying,
“I believe the probability of a recession is at least 50 percent." Fed rate cuts notwithstanding!

Deef Probability: dead certain.

Stimulation or simulation? Action / reaction ?

OK, the Fed made a pre-emptive move that "rescued" the falling markets; but they've opened the door to the potential disaster of runaway inflation AND downturn...and Bush's "stimulus" package would be great *if*:
1. People SPEND THE MONEY ON GOODS and not pay down credit debt or hike savings.
2. We get the money TODAY, not in June!

Anyway, they're both acting like they could stop/delay the recession by throwing money at it. The only real solution is increased government spending on infrastructure, but Bush & Congress are not likely to go there. Watch for more economic turmoil by election day!

Stopping the Freight Train with a Brick

Bush gabs about an economic stimulus package...soonest it could be implemented is JUNE.
Too little, too late; and some say counterproductive (like the Federal Reserve rate cuts to
be made on Jan 30th).
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Fortune magazine poll of 1000 wage earners says over 3/4 see the handwriting on the wall:

Which of the following best describes the country's economic condition right now?

In an economic recession right now.......................19%
Heading into a recession in the next 12 months...57%
Not in a recession and not heading into one.........19%
No Answer/ Don't Know........................................... 5%

Deef's opinion: Recession Probability CERTAIN - UNDENIABLE - REAL - NOW

...so does Man with Gold in Sacks.

NEW YORK, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Wednesday said it expects the U.S. economy to drop into recession this year, prompting the Federal Reserve to slash benchmark lending rates to 2.5 percent by the third quarter.
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Deef Recession Probability: 10,000%