Stimulation or simulation? Action / reaction ?

OK, the Fed made a pre-emptive move that "rescued" the falling markets; but they've opened the door to the potential disaster of runaway inflation AND downturn...and Bush's "stimulus" package would be great *if*:
1. People SPEND THE MONEY ON GOODS and not pay down credit debt or hike savings.
2. We get the money TODAY, not in June!

Anyway, they're both acting like they could stop/delay the recession by throwing money at it. The only real solution is increased government spending on infrastructure, but Bush & Congress are not likely to go there. Watch for more economic turmoil by election day!

Stopping the Freight Train with a Brick

Bush gabs about an economic stimulus package...soonest it could be implemented is JUNE.
Too little, too late; and some say counterproductive (like the Federal Reserve rate cuts to
be made on Jan 30th).
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Fortune magazine poll of 1000 wage earners says over 3/4 see the handwriting on the wall:

Which of the following best describes the country's economic condition right now?

In an economic recession right now.......................19%
Heading into a recession in the next 12 months...57%
Not in a recession and not heading into one.........19%
No Answer/ Don't Know........................................... 5%

Deef's opinion: Recession Probability CERTAIN - UNDENIABLE - REAL - NOW

...so does Man with Gold in Sacks.

NEW YORK, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Wednesday said it expects the U.S. economy to drop into recession this year, prompting the Federal Reserve to slash benchmark lending rates to 2.5 percent by the third quarter.
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Deef Recession Probability: 10,000%

Feldstein Weighs In

from CNNMoney site & Google news:
Martin Feldstein, the Harvard economist credited with being one of the fathers of the Bush administration tax cuts, says the U.S. economy is now likely to slip into a recession, and that avoiding one will take a new round of tax cuts and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
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Deef Recession Probability: 1000%

Watch *This*!

Jump to 5% unemployment!

As Reported at MSNBC.com:

"The rise in the unemployment rate is very disturbing," John Ryding, chief U.S. economist for Bear Stearns, told clients in a note Friday morning. "January's data will be very important in informing on the state of the business cycle," he added.
Saying he was now on "recession watch," Ryding noted that the unemployment rate has now risen 6-tenths percent in the last year, a jump that hasn't happened since 1949 without a recession following.
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Well, that says a lot. Mostly, what I've been saying!

Deef Recession Probability: 200%

What Do You Think

Today (12/27/2007) CNNMoney poll finds that 26% of online poll respondents say we are already in a recession, and 35% say we will be in 2008. Can all these people be wrong?

Deef Recession Probability: 101%

Merrill Lynch,MorganStanley vs Bernanke 1/4%

Bloomberg.com sez:
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. will slip into a "mild'' recession next year, Morgan Stanley said in its latest research, joining Merrill Lynch in predicting a downturn for the world's largest economy. "A mild U.S. recession is now likely, with no growth for the year ahead,'' Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley in New York, said in his weekly note to clients today. "Financial conditions are tighter, the weakness is broadening into capital spending, and global growth is slowing.''

Bernanke and crew duly allowed the equity market to assume they would act boldly to stave off dollar losses...but then wimped out with only a quarter-point cut. Dow drops along with investor confidence. Back to reality, guys: the Fed always keeps one eye on inflation.

Deef's Recession Probabilty: 100%