Watch *This*!

Jump to 5% unemployment!

As Reported at MSNBC.com:

"The rise in the unemployment rate is very disturbing," John Ryding, chief U.S. economist for Bear Stearns, told clients in a note Friday morning. "January's data will be very important in informing on the state of the business cycle," he added.
Saying he was now on "recession watch," Ryding noted that the unemployment rate has now risen 6-tenths percent in the last year, a jump that hasn't happened since 1949 without a recession following.
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Well, that says a lot. Mostly, what I've been saying!

Deef Recession Probability: 200%

What Do You Think

Today (12/27/2007) CNNMoney poll finds that 26% of online poll respondents say we are already in a recession, and 35% say we will be in 2008. Can all these people be wrong?

Deef Recession Probability: 101%

Merrill Lynch,MorganStanley vs Bernanke 1/4%

Bloomberg.com sez:
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. will slip into a "mild'' recession next year, Morgan Stanley said in its latest research, joining Merrill Lynch in predicting a downturn for the world's largest economy. "A mild U.S. recession is now likely, with no growth for the year ahead,'' Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley in New York, said in his weekly note to clients today. "Financial conditions are tighter, the weakness is broadening into capital spending, and global growth is slowing.''

Bernanke and crew duly allowed the equity market to assume they would act boldly to stave off dollar losses...but then wimped out with only a quarter-point cut. Dow drops along with investor confidence. Back to reality, guys: the Fed always keeps one eye on inflation.

Deef's Recession Probabilty: 100%

Stocks Back Up (over 13000)...recession risk,too.

The Associated Press (in "Durable Goods 3rd Monthly Decline" article):

Many economists have raised the odds that the country could fall into an outright recession to as high as 40 percent although they believe that the Federal Reserve, which has already cut interest rates twice since September, will keep reducing rates if economic activity continues to falter.
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Deef sez **80%**; stock rally based on hopes of another (prop-me-up) Fed rate cut Dec 11th.
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Can you say volatile:
DJIA Mon 11/26 -237.5
Tue 11/27 +215
Wed 11/28 +254 midday

Does Anybody Still Doubt It ???

From CNNMOney: "They'll still be spending money, but it will be on credit card interest and minimum payments, not on apparel or eating out," said John Silvia, chief economist for Wachovia. He puts the chance of a recession next year at 30 percent - up from 21 percent in his previous estimate.

Deef's Recession Probability = 75%

fo*R*tune weighs in...

Pandering to the fearful...or placing their bets??
http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/23/magazines/fortune/barr_recession.fortune/index.htm

MSNBC weighs in on the R-word

Some facets of the economy are critical in deciding whether it slips into recession; an excellent (if flipflopping) analysis at MSNBC:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21756953/