We are TECHNICALLY not in a Recession: 4Q 2007 economic growth estimated at +.6%!
But as former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was quoted on Wednesday as saying,
“I believe the probability of a recession is at least 50 percent." Fed rate cuts notwithstanding!
Deef Probability: dead certain.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Friday, January 25, 2008
Stimulation or simulation? Action / reaction ?
OK, the Fed made a pre-emptive move that "rescued" the falling markets; but they've opened the door to the potential disaster of runaway inflation AND downturn...and Bush's "stimulus" package would be great *if*:
1. People SPEND THE MONEY ON GOODS and not pay down credit debt or hike savings.
2. We get the money TODAY, not in June!
Anyway, they're both acting like they could stop/delay the recession by throwing money at it. The only real solution is increased government spending on infrastructure, but Bush & Congress are not likely to go there. Watch for more economic turmoil by election day!
1. People SPEND THE MONEY ON GOODS and not pay down credit debt or hike savings.
2. We get the money TODAY, not in June!
Anyway, they're both acting like they could stop/delay the recession by throwing money at it. The only real solution is increased government spending on infrastructure, but Bush & Congress are not likely to go there. Watch for more economic turmoil by election day!
Friday, January 18, 2008
Stopping the Freight Train with a Brick
Bush gabs about an economic stimulus package...soonest it could be implemented is JUNE.
Too little, too late; and some say counterproductive (like the Federal Reserve rate cuts to
be made on Jan 30th).
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Fortune magazine poll of 1000 wage earners says over 3/4 see the handwriting on the wall:
Which of the following best describes the country's economic condition right now?
In an economic recession right now.......................19%
Heading into a recession in the next 12 months...57%
Not in a recession and not heading into one.........19%
No Answer/ Don't Know........................................... 5%
Deef's opinion: Recession Probability CERTAIN - UNDENIABLE - REAL - NOW
Too little, too late; and some say counterproductive (like the Federal Reserve rate cuts to
be made on Jan 30th).
====================
Fortune magazine poll of 1000 wage earners says over 3/4 see the handwriting on the wall:
Which of the following best describes the country's economic condition right now?
In an economic recession right now.......................19%
Heading into a recession in the next 12 months...57%
Not in a recession and not heading into one.........19%
No Answer/ Don't Know........................................... 5%
Deef's opinion: Recession Probability CERTAIN - UNDENIABLE - REAL - NOW
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
...so does Man with Gold in Sacks.
NEW YORK, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Wednesday said it expects the U.S. economy to drop into recession this year, prompting the Federal Reserve to slash benchmark lending rates to 2.5 percent by the third quarter.
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Deef Recession Probability: 10,000%
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Deef Recession Probability: 10,000%
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Feldstein Weighs In
from CNNMoney site & Google news:
Martin Feldstein, the Harvard economist credited with being one of the fathers of the Bush administration tax cuts, says the U.S. economy is now likely to slip into a recession, and that avoiding one will take a new round of tax cuts and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
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Deef Recession Probability: 1000%
Martin Feldstein, the Harvard economist credited with being one of the fathers of the Bush administration tax cuts, says the U.S. economy is now likely to slip into a recession, and that avoiding one will take a new round of tax cuts and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
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Deef Recession Probability: 1000%
Friday, January 4, 2008
Watch *This*!
Jump to 5% unemployment!
As Reported at MSNBC.com:
"The rise in the unemployment rate is very disturbing," John Ryding, chief U.S. economist for Bear Stearns, told clients in a note Friday morning. "January's data will be very important in informing on the state of the business cycle," he added.
Saying he was now on "recession watch," Ryding noted that the unemployment rate has now risen 6-tenths percent in the last year, a jump that hasn't happened since 1949 without a recession following.
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Well, that says a lot. Mostly, what I've been saying!
Deef Recession Probability: 200%
As Reported at MSNBC.com:
"The rise in the unemployment rate is very disturbing," John Ryding, chief U.S. economist for Bear Stearns, told clients in a note Friday morning. "January's data will be very important in informing on the state of the business cycle," he added.
Saying he was now on "recession watch," Ryding noted that the unemployment rate has now risen 6-tenths percent in the last year, a jump that hasn't happened since 1949 without a recession following.
=====================================
Well, that says a lot. Mostly, what I've been saying!
Deef Recession Probability: 200%
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