Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Stocks Back Up (over 13000)...recession risk,too.

The Associated Press (in "Durable Goods 3rd Monthly Decline" article):

Many economists have raised the odds that the country could fall into an outright recession to as high as 40 percent although they believe that the Federal Reserve, which has already cut interest rates twice since September, will keep reducing rates if economic activity continues to falter.
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Deef sez **80%**; stock rally based on hopes of another (prop-me-up) Fed rate cut Dec 11th.
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Can you say volatile:
DJIA Mon 11/26 -237.5
Tue 11/27 +215
Wed 11/28 +254 midday

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Does Anybody Still Doubt It ???

From CNNMOney: "They'll still be spending money, but it will be on credit card interest and minimum payments, not on apparel or eating out," said John Silvia, chief economist for Wachovia. He puts the chance of a recession next year at 30 percent - up from 21 percent in his previous estimate.

Deef's Recession Probability = 75%

Monday, November 12, 2007

MSNBC weighs in on the R-word

Some facets of the economy are critical in deciding whether it slips into recession; an excellent (if flipflopping) analysis at MSNBC:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21756953/