Recession Watch? Hey that's (c) me!

MSNBC reports US is on "recession watch" after S&P downgrade etc.

Nothing like good stock news...

Tiffany's stock was up 9% Friday, after the luxury jeweler posted higher-than-expected earnings and sales for the second quarter.
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I'm glad the millionaires are still spending...and *have* money to spend on luxury items! Bas**rds.

NO GOOD NEWS AND NO BAD NEWS

AP survey of "leading economists" (read 'overpaid and underskilled soothsayers') says another recession isn't likely in the next 12 months, but neither is any real improvement in the economy. High unemployment and weak spending by consumers are two factors that will extend the onerous status quo into 2012.

MONDAY MORNING Recession Watch

The U.S. economy has officially been out of recession for two years,
but fear of falling back into the abyss has dogged the recovery every step of the way.
Now, the prospect of recession no longer is a fringe view.
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"Recession is not inevitable, but I think there's better than a 50-50 chance now,"
said Bill Gross,the investment chief at bond-fund giant Pimco.
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President Obama says: "I don't think we're in danger of another recession,
but we are in danger of not having a recovery that's fast enough to deal with
what is a genuine unemployment crisis for a whole lot of folks out there."
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Morgan Stanley cut its forecast for world growth, re-igniting fears of a
double-dip recession.

Global Stock Slump (again) on MS view!

A report on the global economy from Morgan Stanley says the US & Europe are "dangerously close" to returning into a recession over the next 6 to 12 months.
Uhh...didn't somebody else (wink wink) predict that?

Retail sales up .5% = no double dip!! (BS)

Retail Sales rose .5% in August, .3% exclding higher-priced gasoline.
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Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities, said the retail sales number reduces the likelihood of another, "double dip" recession.
"Today’s report is a welcome development that allays concerns about a double-dip recession," he said in a note. ""The U.S. consumer has proven to be remarkably resilient."
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To which one reader commented,
"Retail sales rose in direct proportion to the rise in costs. Food went up 12%. Nothing is going down except for our paychecks."

AUGUST JOBS REPORT *NOT* GOOD

Nejat Seyhun writing in "The Business Thinker" provides this analysis:
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On closer inspection, however, there is a lot not to like in the August report. First, the civilian non-institutional population increased by 182,000 from June to July, while the overall number of employed actually went down by 38,000. Since the overall working-age population growth has been about 1.8 million over the past year, the economy on average needs to add about 140,000 new jobs to prevent the unemployment rate from increasing. The net additional payroll figure of 117,000 increase is certainly not satisfactory from this perspective.
Second, the decline in unemployment rate is really not driven by the payroll increase. Instead, it is driven by discouraged workers leaving the workforce. In addition to the decline in the total employed, the labor participation rate also declined from 64.1% in June to 63.9% in July. Even with the additional payroll, had labor participation rate held steady from June to July, the unemployment rate would have actually increased to 9.3%.
Third, there are additional dynamics in the labor picture that are discouraging. For instance, over the past year, total labor force has increased by about 318,000. When we look at part-time and full-time groups, we see that full-time labor force has actually declined by 143,000 while the part-time workers have increased by 460,000. Hence, the net increase in total employment is driven by part-time jobs. Increasingly, workers are leaving full-time jobs and taking on part-time jobs.
Fourth, the labor participation rate has been falling steadily, masking the true state of the deteriorating labor situation. Over the past year, about 2.2 million actually people left the workforce due to discouragement. Only a year ago, the labor participation rate was 65.3%. Had this rate held steady over the past year, the current unemployment rate would be announced as nothing less than a whopping 11.0% in July 2011.
Overall, after more than two years into a so-called recovery and trillions of dollar spent in fiscal and monetary stimulus, there is no evidence of recovery in the employment picture. I find this discouraging.
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me, too, Nejat.

Banks Eat Their Young

(AP) Bank of New York Mellon Corp. said Wed (8-10-11) that it will cut about 1500 jobs, or 3 percent of its work force.The banking industry resorted to layoffs during 2008 and 2009, as the financial crisis pummeled earnings and banks took government bailouts. 2010 provided some relief, and banks even hired back some laid-off workers. But banks have been cutting jobs again in recent months. Goldman Sachs and State Street, among others, announced last week that they would also lay off about 3 percent of their workforces. What makes these cuts different from the layoffs of 2008 and 2009 is that they're coming at a time when many banks are actually posting improved profits.

Meanwhile on Planet [Standard and less] Poors:

"People are going to feel less rich and that will make them hold back on spending, which would be a further blow to the economy," said Beth Ann Bovino, a senior U.S. economist at Standard and Poor's.
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"Less rich" WTF where do you live b*tch??

GOOD NEWS! No Double-Dip! (BS)

from msnbc.com:
The U.S. may have dodged the double-dip bullet with the latest jobs data...

The government's monthly job report pointed to a surprise uptick in hiring in July. Payrolls expanded by 117,000 as private employers added 154,000 workers and governments cut 37,000 positions in July.

"This is a fabulous number," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "We're not out of the woods yet, but this is a good sign that we are going to avoid [a double-dip] recession."
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WHAT A TOOL! Blah blah blah BS!

Consumer Spending Fell "UNEXPECTEDLY" in June

msnbc (c) 8-2-11:
U.S. consumer spending slipped 0.2 percent in June, after edging up 0.1 percent in May. It was the first decline since September 2009. Economists polled by Reuters had expected spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, to rise 0.2 percent...
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...because they are idiots who can't tell which way the wind is blowing without a compass!