Today (12/27/2007) CNNMoney poll finds that 26% of online poll respondents say we are already in a recession, and 35% say we will be in 2008. Can all these people be wrong?
Deef Recession Probability: 101%
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Merrill Lynch,MorganStanley vs Bernanke 1/4%
Bloomberg.com sez:
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. will slip into a "mild'' recession next year, Morgan Stanley said in its latest research, joining Merrill Lynch in predicting a downturn for the world's largest economy. "A mild U.S. recession is now likely, with no growth for the year ahead,'' Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley in New York, said in his weekly note to clients today. "Financial conditions are tighter, the weakness is broadening into capital spending, and global growth is slowing.''
Bernanke and crew duly allowed the equity market to assume they would act boldly to stave off dollar losses...but then wimped out with only a quarter-point cut. Dow drops along with investor confidence. Back to reality, guys: the Fed always keeps one eye on inflation.
Deef's Recession Probabilty: 100%
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. will slip into a "mild'' recession next year, Morgan Stanley said in its latest research, joining Merrill Lynch in predicting a downturn for the world's largest economy. "A mild U.S. recession is now likely, with no growth for the year ahead,'' Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley in New York, said in his weekly note to clients today. "Financial conditions are tighter, the weakness is broadening into capital spending, and global growth is slowing.''
Bernanke and crew duly allowed the equity market to assume they would act boldly to stave off dollar losses...but then wimped out with only a quarter-point cut. Dow drops along with investor confidence. Back to reality, guys: the Fed always keeps one eye on inflation.
Deef's Recession Probabilty: 100%
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